18+ Statistical analysis, not advice. Matchdaita does not take bets or hold funds
matchdaitaSports Data Analytics
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— of what we published, happened.

The model said — would. The market priced —. Every selection goes out before kick-off and is graded at the final whistle — this is the whole record, not a highlights reel.

—the model said
—the market said
—ahead of the market
—running, the read came good

No payment details needed to start. This is analysis, not advice — no outcome is promised.

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Free, every day

Yesterday's read, and what happened

The last day's selections, and how each one finished. Nothing is deleted after a bad night.

Method

How the model is built

Four steps, in the same order every day. The same board always produces the same read.

1

Model the scoreline

Every fixture becomes a full distribution over scorelines, built from expected goals rather than goals scored, and shrunk toward last season so a short run cannot carry a match on its own.

2

Price every market off it

Results, totals, handicaps and team goals all come out of that one matrix, so they can never contradict each other. The market's own view is read alongside, with the margin stripped out.

3

Refuse most of it

Where the model and the market disagree by more than eight points, the selection is refused. The model is not assumed to be right.

4

Write it down before it settles

The read and the model's numbers are logged before kick-off and graded against the result. That is what makes the record a record rather than a memory.

Founders

Free while we build the record.

Matchdaita is open to friends and family at no cost while the record is still short. Everything a paying subscriber will get, for nothing, in return for being the people who watched it grow.

Founders' access

Free

The morning read, any later run of the day, and the full view on every selection.

£0while the record is built
Join free
  • ✓The morning read, before anything kicks off
  • ✓Any later run of the day — when the board is re-read as team news lands, it is pushed to you the moment it exists
  • ✓The full view on every match — expected goals each side, the likely scorelines, the findings behind them
  • ✓Sent to Telegram and email as soon as it is built
  • ✓Every read graded in public, right or wrong

What happens later

Once the record is long enough to charge for, Matchdaita becomes a paid subscription — plans from £14.99 to £47.99 a month. Founders are told first, nothing is charged without your say, and anyone who joined in this phase keeps a founder's price.

No payment details are taken now. No outcome is promised, now or later.

The record

Every prediction, and how it resolved

Every day published, what the model said, and what happened. Not a highlights reel.

Each day's read is hashed before kick-off and opened afterwards, so nothing can be changed in between. Check the seals yourself.

Straight answers

The questions worth asking of any model

Is the model any good?

Judge it by the record. Of the — selections published so far, — happened, against the — the model said would. A model that is right as often as it says it will be is the whole claim.

Is it really free?

For now, yes. While the record is short, friends and family get every run of the day before kick-off for nothing. It becomes a paid subscription once the record is long enough to charge for; founders are told first and keep a founder's price.

What happens when the model is wrong?

It gets published, with the reason. Every selection that did not happen is read against the match — the chances created, every goal and how it came — and the verdict stays on the site.

Do you take bets or hold money?

No. Matchdaita is not a bookmaker. It produces analysis; what you do with it is your own decision, at your own risk.

Join as a founder

Today's read before kick-off, with the model's figure on every selection. Free while the record is built; no payment details taken.

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18+ only. No outcome is promised or implied.